From Random Bets to Systematic Discipline

The first time I invested in the financial markets was around 2006. I had opened a bank account in a Baltic country, and the advisor asked whether I wanted to invest in an ETF or a mutual fund. I had no research, no system, no rationale—only intuition. I chose a fund investing in India because, at that time, China and India were widely regarded as the next engines of global growth.

Then the 2008 financial crisis hit. My investment fell by roughly 50%.
It wasn’t a large amount of money, so I wasn’t devastated—but I was irritated. I held onto it, and by around 2010 I exited with about a 20% gain overall. That amounted to roughly 5% per year, after a 50% drawdown. Not exactly a good use of capital.

In 2011, equities crashed again. I don’t recall the exact trigger, but I remember thinking: maybe this time I should invest more seriously. I opened a new position in Asian ETFs, and they performed very well. My confidence went up. I felt like a genius.

So naturally, I kept going.

I opened a significant position in gold. This time, it fell by about 10%. And because it was a meaningful amount, I began to feel the stress. I held on, it eventually recovered, and I closed the position slightly below break-even. But the emotional experience had left its mark. I stepped back from investing altogether.

The Shift Toward Systematic Thinking

A few years later, I asked myself a different question:
If I trust my math skills in every other domain, why am I not using them here?

Around 2015, I began designing systematic strategies. I focused on sector rotation through thematic ETFs, building a model that identified which sectors had favorable conditions at any given time. It wasn’t producing massive gains—but it was stable, rational, and emotionally manageable. That was a breakthrough.

I created a small pitch deck and began speaking with financial professionals. I eventually collaborated with one of them, working on lifecycle investment products for his client network. That collaboration taught me a great deal about how the industry functions from the inside.

When our paths diverged, I used the experience to build the foundation of what would later become Numericon Alpha (originally called Next Alpha). I allocated my own capital into it—first cautiously, then increasingly confidently. It evolved from a strategy into a portfolio.

The Hedge Fund Phase

In 2019, I met a highly experienced financial professional who wanted to launch a hedge fund. He needed quantitative strategy development—I had the coding and portfolio modeling experience; he had the industry depth. It was a perfect match.

We spent months refining the system, optimizing and testing. It worked—very well. Numericon Alpha evolved further as I incorporated what I had learned, and performance improved significantly. I increased my capital allocation, to the point where nearly my entire net worth became tied to it—and remains tied to it today.

During this period, I also learned how to engage with outside investors: hedge funds, wealthy individuals, traders, and others. The experience was enormously valuable—and at times painful.

I learned the emotional side of portfolio management is not the same for everyone.

Many investors sabotage themselves. Even professional ones.

When markets decline by 5–10%, instead of following the system, they panic, intervene, or withdraw at precisely the wrong moment. The market then reverts—just as the system anticipated—and the damage becomes permanent. The lesson was clear: Systems must adapt not only to markets, but to people.

This led me to develop variants of Numericon Alpha tailored to different risk tolerances and emotional profiles—while using the same core instruments that I trade daily and know intimately.

The Present

Numericon Alpha has been running continuously since 2017. When I learn something new, it is incorporated. The core instruments are stable; the decision-making logic has steadily improved.

Some clients now use it directly in their accounts. The implementation is sophisticated—servers, bots, execution engines—but this is the cost of achieving high returns with controlled volatility and limited drawdowns.

I am proud of where the journey has led. It wasn’t smooth. Progress is rarely visible day-to-day. But looking back across years, the evolution is undeniable.

If You Are Just Starting

If you’re beginning your investment journey, I strongly recommend finding someone you trust. There is endless content online, but most of it ranges from inaccurate to dangerous. Find someone honest, experienced, and grounded in reality—not someone trying to sell you dreams.

Investing is not a quick-win game. It is a marathon. And the first step is walking alongside someone who has already made the journey.